WILL THE ANTI-TAX TEA PARTY MOVEMENT IMPACT THE JACKSONVILLE MAYORAL RACE?

With the spirited demonstration and the long list of citizens speaking against the millage increase last night at City Hall, the Tea Party movement may have an impact on next year's mayoral race. Since so many candidates are running as of now, a candidate may only need 20-25% to make the runoff. If a candidate can capture the anti-tax and anti-government movement on display last night, it could be their ticket to the runoff.

Ironically, the current Tax Collector, Mike Hogan may be best positioned
to harness this energy for his campaign - since most of the other major names in the race are affiliated with a more moderate approach to city finances.

However - being anti-tax may not be enough to talk about city finances.
I am sure the mayoral candidates were hoping that the firefighters would approve the pension reductions the mayor proposed. Since the fire union rejected this plan, this issue will continue to be important and remain alive throughout the mayoral campaign. The candidates are going to have a hard time arguing for lower taxes while trying to eliminate reductions to public safety personnel. The rejection by the firefighters of pension reform
is a political mess that has landed in the middle of the Jacksonville mayor's race.

TEA PARTY CANDIDATES WINNING IN DELAWARE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE IN EARLY RESULTS

These results are a potential political earthquake. These two very conservative candidates may upset the moderate Republicans in these two moderate states.
These states were already predicted to be in the Republican column for the Senate.
The Tea Party candidates - if they hold on tonight - mean that the Democrats could win the Senate races in November in these states. In other words, if these results hold, Republicans may lose their opportunity to take over the Senate.
Incredible - Sarah Palin is the new kingmaker and queenmaker of American politics.

What the Professors are Predicting About the Midterm Elections

A panel was held at the American Political Science Association in Washington last weekend that focused on the midterm elections. 3 out of 5 panelists believed that Republicans will take over the US House. ALL of the panelists had Democrats losing seats from 27 to over 50 (Republicans need a pickup of 39 seats to take control). With the economic problems and an energized conservative movement, Democratic electoral prospects nationwide look dire.

The important difference is the gap between registered voters and likely voters. In most polls, likely voters are trending heavily Republican. However, if all registered voters are included, Democrats pull even. Thus, the election comes down to turnout. If the Democrats can improve their turnout nationally, they may have a chance to hold on to the House. If Republicans continue to hold a huge turnout advantage, then the US House and US Senate may flip back to the GOP.

A Trip to Washington Inspires

My apologies for my brief break - I was travelling.

Even in the midst of a heated political campaign - where compromise and common sense are tough to find, one place should continue to inspire all Americans about their nation and their future. I was in Washington DC last weekend for the American Political Science Association meeting. I will post a blog about that shortly. Yet being in Washington still makes me feel good about our country and our future.

Almost a million people a year from all backgrounds still come to Washington to see the Constitution and the Lincoln Memorial and the other important sites. They come because they do not believe the cynicism that we see too often in Congress and in our political system. They don't care about attack ads, polls and political division. They come because they want to see what the promise of a representative democracy is about. They want to see the documents of our founding, and they want to salute our fallen at Arlington National Cemetery. I will take the optimism of a typical visitor to Washington DC anyday over the cold political calculations of too many of our political leaders.

CHILES MAY GET OUT OF THE RACE FOR GOVERNOR

Several news outlets are reporting that Bud Chiles may end his independent candidacy for governor. If so, this is a major relief for Democratic candidate Alex Sink. She needs all the potential votes she can get - because Democratic turnout is a real concern for Democratic candidates this Fall.

THE DISCONNECT BETWEEN CAMPAIGN POLITICS AND REALITY IN JACKSONVILLE

The same night that many Floridians were following the exciting political races for governor and senator, two children were shot in Jacksonville leaving cheerleading practice. This shooting took place adjacent to a park in the Northside of Jacksonville and sent parents and children scrambling for cover.

Every political candidate I heard on Tuesday night promised a better Florida. Yet during the campaign parties with streamers, balloons and TV coverage, two young girls were shot and had to watch one of their parents being murdered in Jacksonville. This incident should provoke outrage in the city for a number of reasons:

1. The police indicated it may be connected to drug activity in the area.
2. A large number of parents and children ( who had nothing to do with this incident) were put in danger - simply because they were at cheerleading and football practice at a public park.
3. No candidate that I heard Tuesday night talked about this type of violence.
4. If this incident took place at another location in Jacksonville such as the Beaches or Avondale, there would be widespread justifiable outrage.

Let me be clear. The murderer in this incident is responsible for this act, but our community as a whole is responsible for our reaction to this
tragedy. To his credit, Sheriff Rutherford has moved quickly to raise the profile of this terrible crime. The rest of us (media, academia, community leaders and citizens) need to join in.

The Times Union reported this morning that the mayor's anti-crime initiative, the Jacksonville Journey, may face deep funding cuts. Does this make any sense after the horror of Tuesday night?

SCOTT'S VICTORY WAS SEALED IN NORTH FLORIDA

Rick Scott is the Republican nominee for Governor in Florida for two reasons:

1) Scott won the counties of Duval, St. Johns and Clay by large margins. McCollum performed under expectations in Central Florida - he essentially tied Scott in Tampa - an area he should have won easily. (I underestimated Scott's ground game - he was in Jacksonville 3 times over the weekend).

2) Mike McCalister is a former Colonel and current teacher who received 10% of the vote last night in the Republican primary. This is a large amount for an unknown candidate. It may have been a protest vote because of the negative campaigning, but it wound up hurting McCollum - McCalister received over 100,000 votes and McCollum lost by 40,000.

I will have more on the Sink versus Scott race later in the week.

TURNOUT IS LIGHT FOR TODAY'S ELECTION SO FAR

According to the Florida Times Union, less than 10,000 people have voted in Duval County as of 10AM. This will hurt the outsiders (Greene and Scott)- the committed regular voters usually lean towards the established candidates. The outsiders need a populist uprising and it doesn't look like they are getting it.

I will be on WTLV Channel 12 tonight at 7:30PM. Their digital channel is 201 and will have live election results. I will also be on First Coast Connect tomorrow morning at 9AM on the radio at 89.9. Happy Election Day.

TAKE THE POLITICAL VETERANS OVER THE RICH NEWCOMERS ON TUESDAY

Political Scientists have long been better at analyzing than predicting - President (I mean Senator) John Kerry can attest to that.
Yet the gubernatorial and senatorial primaries in Florida this summer are heading back to the political insiders. Money can buy name recognition and status - but it cannot always buy high profile elections. Money can knock out candidates early in a race but if the veterans survive the initial blows of millions of dollars of negative campaigning - their ground games (Get out the Vote) usually win elections.

Bill McCollum has weathered an unprecedented blitz from Rick Scott in the Republican primary race for governor. Scott seems almost desperate now - some voters are getting 5 pieces of his mail a day. This race could be close but in the end - the Republican Party establishment and faithful activists will win it for McCollum.

Kendrick Meek was down and out only a month ago in his quest to be the Democratic nominee for US Senate -but he is surging. He is bringing home Democrats who were flirting with Charlie Crist. Jeff Greene may be able to buy yachts, but he has not be able to put together a political organization. A Florida newspaper reported that only 13 people showed up to his event in Sarasota. Meek should win comfortably and then face a real difficult general election campaign.

With all of their millions, Scott and Greene have to face a reality. There is a law of diminishing returns with campaign money. You have to have it to compete but TV commercials alone do not make a political campaign. You have to match your media buys with a campaign organization on the ground. After people have seen your commercials 30 times, they have already made up their minds.

MCCOLLUM DESERVES CREDIT FOR HANGING TOUGH IN RACE FOR GOVERNOR

Republican Bill McCollum has often been criticized as being an uninspiring candidate.Yet his movement in the polls this week (Mason Dixon organization has him leading) is a remarkable political achievement. His primary opponent Rick Scott has poured over $30 million into a primary campaign - shattering all campaign finance records. Few candidates can withstand 30 million dollars worth of attacks.

When the polls had Scott surging over a month ago, many observers thought McCollum was finished. However he had used endorsements from Jeb Bush and the Chamber of Commerce to full impact. He also has a much more comprehensive get out the vote effort (GOTV) than Rick Scott with campaign coordinators in every part of the state. This heated primary between Republicans has helped Democrat Alex Sink who has not had to engage in name-calling and negative attacks. This will soon come to an end after August 24th. If McCollum survives the primary, he has shown himself to be a tougher candidate than anyone imagined.

GRASSROOTS MEEK AND MCCOLLUM VERSUS MONEYMEN SCOTT AND GREENE

As we all know now, money can buy you poll position and political fame, but can money alone close the deal?

Kendrick Meek has gone across the state - campaigning the old-fashioned way. He has been to community centers and union halls. Can he turnout enough African-Americans and other dedicated Democrats to ward off all of Jeff Greene's money? Should Greene be worried that his lead seems to be closing even before Meek had to go up with television ads? The answer to both questions is yes. The Democratic turnout will define this primary race for U.S. Senate. Meek may have been down but he is nowhere near out. How Greene will use his resources to advance his own grassroots efforts will be critical to his success.


Rick Scott has surged to a lead in the Republican race for Governor, but McCollum has had a good week. Governor Jeb Bush's endorsement and campaign appearances are a big deal for McCollum. Since so many Republican activists and leaders support McCollum - will they be able to create enough turnout to catch Scott? Something has the Scott campaigned worried because they just put another 5 million into the race. Stay tuned.

Kendrick Meek Deserves Better From Democrats

According to polls, Kendrick Meek is trailing Jeff Greene in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate in Florida. He deserves better. It is understandable why Republicans are not Meek supporters but the Democratic establishment, the White House and Democratic voters have left him to twist in the wind.

Unlike his opponent who is dropping millions into a television campaign, Meek went across the state and qualified to run by petition. He has moved from community to community attempting to actually interact with voters. He is a former state trooper and longtime activist in the Democratic Party. He had the political guts to challenge Jeb Bush during his time as Governor over education reform and affirmative action when no one else in the state (Republican or Democrat)would take on the powerful former Governor. While he has had some serious accusations concerning relations with certain donors, he is not the first politician who has been accused of favoring donors.

What has he received for his work for the Democratic Party? Not much The White House will not actively support him; Voters have been disengaged with his campaign and his challenger with an unlimited bankroll is now a front-runner. Yet voters may tire of the negative tone of Greene's ads and come home to Meek during the last weeks of the campaign. However if the campaign does not change, Democrats may nominate a billionaire who made his money betting against working class homeowners and has only lived in the state for the past 2 years. Meanwhile, an African-American leader from Miami who has given most of his life to the Democratic Party will be shut out. This outcome is not very democratic (small d).

Scott is now GOP front-runner - will this work in November?

Rick Scott is now the clear front-runner in the GOP primary race for Florida governor. This is an amazing development considering that no one knew of Scott four months ago. He has put in over $30 million dollars into this race. This is a record for a Florida primary. Has Rick Scott bought the GOP primary nomination? The clear answer is yes. Now can he buy the Governorship?

GOP politicians and operatives in the state now must face the realization that they have a candidate that no one in the party establishment wanted. He is on record as being the top administrator in a company that defrauded Medicare for over a billion dollars. Look for many stories from Democratic sources about his company's treatment of patients. He has risked the delicate relationship between the Florida GOP and the Hispanic community with his strong views on illegal immigration. He also has little experience in the political world except for starring in edited television commercials.

However before Democrats start rejoicing - they need to keep this in mind. He has more individual monetary assets than an any other candidate in Florida history. If he spent $35 million on the primary - what is he going to spend on the general? 40 million? He followed a simple formula in the primary race. Label himself as an outsider and attack the political establishment. While Alex Sink, the Democratic front-runner, has not been a career politician - she is the Chief Financial Officer of the state during the worst recession since WWII. The Scott campaign will have plenty of ammunition for their ads. If you have $30 million dollars - you can make Mother Theresa look bad.

The other challenge that Democrats have is from an unlikely source - an independent candidate named Bud Chiles - son of former governor Lawton Chiles. With his familiar name, he could take thousands of Democrats with him in November. Independent candidates usually start out stronger in the polls and then fade. The Sink campaign is hoping this will happen to Chiles.

Because Scott is such an unknown entity, voters, journalists and commentators need to find out what he would actually do as governor. " Let's get to work " is good politics but tells us nothing about his governing. Since he actually has a chance now to become governor, we need to know more.