Political Scientists have long been better at analyzing than predicting - President (I mean Senator) John Kerry can attest to that.
Yet the gubernatorial and senatorial primaries in Florida this summer are heading back to the political insiders. Money can buy name recognition and status - but it cannot always buy high profile elections. Money can knock out candidates early in a race but if the veterans survive the initial blows of millions of dollars of negative campaigning - their ground games (Get out the Vote) usually win elections.
Bill McCollum has weathered an unprecedented blitz from Rick Scott in the Republican primary race for governor. Scott seems almost desperate now - some voters are getting 5 pieces of his mail a day. This race could be close but in the end - the Republican Party establishment and faithful activists will win it for McCollum.
Kendrick Meek was down and out only a month ago in his quest to be the Democratic nominee for US Senate -but he is surging. He is bringing home Democrats who were flirting with Charlie Crist. Jeff Greene may be able to buy yachts, but he has not be able to put together a political organization. A Florida newspaper reported that only 13 people showed up to his event in Sarasota. Meek should win comfortably and then face a real difficult general election campaign.
With all of their millions, Scott and Greene have to face a reality. There is a law of diminishing returns with campaign money. You have to have it to compete but TV commercials alone do not make a political campaign. You have to match your media buys with a campaign organization on the ground. After people have seen your commercials 30 times, they have already made up their minds.
No comments:
Post a Comment