What the Professors are Predicting About the Midterm Elections

A panel was held at the American Political Science Association in Washington last weekend that focused on the midterm elections. 3 out of 5 panelists believed that Republicans will take over the US House. ALL of the panelists had Democrats losing seats from 27 to over 50 (Republicans need a pickup of 39 seats to take control). With the economic problems and an energized conservative movement, Democratic electoral prospects nationwide look dire.

The important difference is the gap between registered voters and likely voters. In most polls, likely voters are trending heavily Republican. However, if all registered voters are included, Democrats pull even. Thus, the election comes down to turnout. If the Democrats can improve their turnout nationally, they may have a chance to hold on to the House. If Republicans continue to hold a huge turnout advantage, then the US House and US Senate may flip back to the GOP.