WILL THE ANTI-TAX TEA PARTY MOVEMENT IMPACT THE JACKSONVILLE MAYORAL RACE?

With the spirited demonstration and the long list of citizens speaking against the millage increase last night at City Hall, the Tea Party movement may have an impact on next year's mayoral race. Since so many candidates are running as of now, a candidate may only need 20-25% to make the runoff. If a candidate can capture the anti-tax and anti-government movement on display last night, it could be their ticket to the runoff.

Ironically, the current Tax Collector, Mike Hogan may be best positioned
to harness this energy for his campaign - since most of the other major names in the race are affiliated with a more moderate approach to city finances.

However - being anti-tax may not be enough to talk about city finances.
I am sure the mayoral candidates were hoping that the firefighters would approve the pension reductions the mayor proposed. Since the fire union rejected this plan, this issue will continue to be important and remain alive throughout the mayoral campaign. The candidates are going to have a hard time arguing for lower taxes while trying to eliminate reductions to public safety personnel. The rejection by the firefighters of pension reform
is a political mess that has landed in the middle of the Jacksonville mayor's race.

TEA PARTY CANDIDATES WINNING IN DELAWARE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE IN EARLY RESULTS

These results are a potential political earthquake. These two very conservative candidates may upset the moderate Republicans in these two moderate states.
These states were already predicted to be in the Republican column for the Senate.
The Tea Party candidates - if they hold on tonight - mean that the Democrats could win the Senate races in November in these states. In other words, if these results hold, Republicans may lose their opportunity to take over the Senate.
Incredible - Sarah Palin is the new kingmaker and queenmaker of American politics.

What the Professors are Predicting About the Midterm Elections

A panel was held at the American Political Science Association in Washington last weekend that focused on the midterm elections. 3 out of 5 panelists believed that Republicans will take over the US House. ALL of the panelists had Democrats losing seats from 27 to over 50 (Republicans need a pickup of 39 seats to take control). With the economic problems and an energized conservative movement, Democratic electoral prospects nationwide look dire.

The important difference is the gap between registered voters and likely voters. In most polls, likely voters are trending heavily Republican. However, if all registered voters are included, Democrats pull even. Thus, the election comes down to turnout. If the Democrats can improve their turnout nationally, they may have a chance to hold on to the House. If Republicans continue to hold a huge turnout advantage, then the US House and US Senate may flip back to the GOP.

A Trip to Washington Inspires

My apologies for my brief break - I was travelling.

Even in the midst of a heated political campaign - where compromise and common sense are tough to find, one place should continue to inspire all Americans about their nation and their future. I was in Washington DC last weekend for the American Political Science Association meeting. I will post a blog about that shortly. Yet being in Washington still makes me feel good about our country and our future.

Almost a million people a year from all backgrounds still come to Washington to see the Constitution and the Lincoln Memorial and the other important sites. They come because they do not believe the cynicism that we see too often in Congress and in our political system. They don't care about attack ads, polls and political division. They come because they want to see what the promise of a representative democracy is about. They want to see the documents of our founding, and they want to salute our fallen at Arlington National Cemetery. I will take the optimism of a typical visitor to Washington DC anyday over the cold political calculations of too many of our political leaders.

CHILES MAY GET OUT OF THE RACE FOR GOVERNOR

Several news outlets are reporting that Bud Chiles may end his independent candidacy for governor. If so, this is a major relief for Democratic candidate Alex Sink. She needs all the potential votes she can get - because Democratic turnout is a real concern for Democratic candidates this Fall.

THE DISCONNECT BETWEEN CAMPAIGN POLITICS AND REALITY IN JACKSONVILLE

The same night that many Floridians were following the exciting political races for governor and senator, two children were shot in Jacksonville leaving cheerleading practice. This shooting took place adjacent to a park in the Northside of Jacksonville and sent parents and children scrambling for cover.

Every political candidate I heard on Tuesday night promised a better Florida. Yet during the campaign parties with streamers, balloons and TV coverage, two young girls were shot and had to watch one of their parents being murdered in Jacksonville. This incident should provoke outrage in the city for a number of reasons:

1. The police indicated it may be connected to drug activity in the area.
2. A large number of parents and children ( who had nothing to do with this incident) were put in danger - simply because they were at cheerleading and football practice at a public park.
3. No candidate that I heard Tuesday night talked about this type of violence.
4. If this incident took place at another location in Jacksonville such as the Beaches or Avondale, there would be widespread justifiable outrage.

Let me be clear. The murderer in this incident is responsible for this act, but our community as a whole is responsible for our reaction to this
tragedy. To his credit, Sheriff Rutherford has moved quickly to raise the profile of this terrible crime. The rest of us (media, academia, community leaders and citizens) need to join in.

The Times Union reported this morning that the mayor's anti-crime initiative, the Jacksonville Journey, may face deep funding cuts. Does this make any sense after the horror of Tuesday night?

SCOTT'S VICTORY WAS SEALED IN NORTH FLORIDA

Rick Scott is the Republican nominee for Governor in Florida for two reasons:

1) Scott won the counties of Duval, St. Johns and Clay by large margins. McCollum performed under expectations in Central Florida - he essentially tied Scott in Tampa - an area he should have won easily. (I underestimated Scott's ground game - he was in Jacksonville 3 times over the weekend).

2) Mike McCalister is a former Colonel and current teacher who received 10% of the vote last night in the Republican primary. This is a large amount for an unknown candidate. It may have been a protest vote because of the negative campaigning, but it wound up hurting McCollum - McCalister received over 100,000 votes and McCollum lost by 40,000.

I will have more on the Sink versus Scott race later in the week.